I get that we live in the fake it ‘til you make it world when it comes to startups. We put on a show to sell sizzle until we can figure out where to get steak. But, right now, things are as off the rails as they were when Russia started to export crappy cars in the 1970s.
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In 1968, very communist-era Russia debuted the supersonic passenger plane two months before Concord/e (avec ‘e’ SVP if you’re coming from the French side of Airbus). The Tu-144 was an aeroflop. Poor design, build, and quality control. The cabin was uncomfortable. And the name – ugh. Unless you’re George Lucas merchandising R2-D2, Tu-144 ain’t going to sell.
Lessons learned. Don’t invent wheels. Crib success. So, in 1969, when Russia wanted to build cars, they looked for the ugliest one that worked. Maybe this 1966 ad that dropped a Fiat 124 out of a plane convinced the Politburo that the little boxy car could survive harsh Russian winters and even more hostile roads.
Wed to naming things after serial numbers, the Zhiguli VAZ-2105 was born. Despite its poor build and chronic breakdowns, it sold so well in its home market that they started exporting what they called Lada elsewhere. There was a dealer not far from where I grew up (Yonge and Centre ← yes, that’s how Canucks spell that). Lada couldn’t sell the cars. So a developer not far from where I grew up (Aileen and John) gave you a free Lada when you bought a new house. Then, two. They would rust on people’s driveways. You literally couldn’t give them away.
There’s a moral here. Never fall for the girl in the short skirt standing in the snow next to a soviet car modeled after the only thing Italian designers of 1960s couldn’t make pretty. It’s a misdirection. Don’t believe the hype. It’s a sequel. As an equal, can I get this through to you…
In 2020, an alternative fuel car company named for a famed electrical engineer, showed off its truck. No, this wasn’t Elon Musk’s Tesla. This was Trevor Milton’s electric car company, Nikola. To convince investors he had built a winner, Milton showed a video of the Nikola One prototype powered by producing its own hydrogen fuel. General Motors was so impressed their CEO, Mary Barra, announced they were investing $2B in Nikola.
Turns out the Nikola worked even less well than the Lada. They had towed the truck up a hill and pressed the little red button their phone when the truck was rolling down. It gets so much worse. The good folks at Hildenburg Research (more that one of these days) blew the whistle on Nikola for those of us not named Mary Barra. The dashboard was an off-the-shelf tablet. Major components weren’t in the car. They edited the video to make the truck look like it was going faster. Because, apparently, having the first working hydrogen-powered truck wouldn’t be impressive enough.
The belle of this year’s Consumer Electronics ball was the Rabbit One. As I said back in January, “Their orange box is a push-to-talk 2003 Sprint walkie-talkie with a thumbwheel from a leftover Blackberry. If you figure out why I should care, LMK.”
No one heeded my warning. Going forward, I think we should be sus about anything called, “One.” People plonked down good money to be the first people on the AI block on one of these bricks. They shipped a couple of weeks ago and were a disaster. The Verge called it an unfinished, unhelpful $200 desk ornament slash fidget toy. A lot like the Nikola One, it was all faked. It was essentially an Android app running on commodity hardware.
Nearly 19M people follow Marques Brownlee on YouTube for his product reviews. He called the Rabbit, “Barely reviewable.” That sounds downright charitable compared to his review for the hu.ma.ne AI pin.
Back in October, I called it, “A $699 bauble you wear like a Star Trek communicator and casts laser beams on your hand to remind you about appointments.” Last month, Brownlee said it was “The worst product he had ever reviewed.”
Folks, it’s ok to have new ideas. It’s ok that they’re not perfect out of the gate. It’s even ok to sell early models to people. But, if you don’t have steak, sell hamburger. Hell if you don’t have that, sell plant-based meat. But stop dressing up sizzle as steak and think you’re going to get away with it.
We believe the hype because we want to believe the hype. Because there’s always a pretty girl in a short skirt standing in the snow beside it. And, lasers. And, mouse wheels. And, hydrogen trucks.
