Today’s best ad businesses don’t deliver media. They deliver groceries. And, rides. And shopping experiences. And a bunch of other things. But, not media. That leaves the media business in turmoil. Who would have thunk it?
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Apparently, not leadership at dozens of the world’s biggest and most valuable media companies. They didn’t see this coming. They’re paid lots of money to know where the business of media is going. Too many of them have no clue.
Since the start of the year, Prime Video, Audible, Twitch, Duolingo, MGM Studios, Google, NBC, Universal Music, Hallmark Media, and too many others to list have laid off or announced plans to lay off thousands of people. And, it sucks.
Media CEOs fill in the layoff press releases with two statements. First, a sterile and unapologetic, “We got optimistic about our prospects and hired more people than we need… right now.” Right now, ignore, “We,” and “Our,” and I believe the board’s culpability. Funny how people always use always plural when things go badly. The other line is, “Media is hard. Ads are drying up.” Stat that is only half true. Media is hard. Ads are not drying up.
Even the folks who were successful once don’t see it. Not the guy who started The Messenger. Not the guys who founded Instagram and created the derivative media turd, Artif*ct. Which is yet another news reader. News media media people fawned all over Artifact. In fact, the app probably got more stories than downloads. This wek, Artifact tossed in the towel.
No one could have seen this coming. Unless you read this four months ago.If you’re honest and objective, it’s not hard to see this stuff. Typhoons sink a lot of ships. That’s the opposite of rising tides sink all ships. The media folks who wrote in loving terms that these obviously flawed media startups will win are willing to go down with their ships.
Since you’re unlikely to read this stuff elsewhere, I’m going to read the tealeaves to tell you where ads are going. Spoiler. Ads are going all the places you’re going when you’re not at home.
You think of Instacart as an app that brings you groceries. But, ads are their most profitable and fastest growing line of business.
Until now, those ads have reached you on your phone. Probably when you’re at home. Instacart is coming to a shopping cart near you. Now those Instacart ads will reach you out of home. Feel free to ahh and ooh. It’s not just ooh. It’s DOOH — an acronym for digital out of home. A media sector Group M says will grow 26% this year.
To understand why, let’s see what an iCart ad can do when you’re not home.
You get to you a Bristol Farms store in SoCal. Grab a shopping cart. You’re cruising by the produce section. It knows that because there’s geolocation baked in the iCart. The iCart app knows the store’s layout. iCart pairs to your Instacart app. It knows you order bananas. So, it points out that bananas are over that way and shows you a 30% off ad for Del Monte bananas. Bananas, right?
Think about what this means for ads. I could show you an ad for bananas when you’re ordering. Now, I can show you a more informed ad when you’re on the go. When you might walk right by them. The power of the ad went up 5-fold. This is happening. Bristol Farms, Del Monte, General Mills, and a few other brands are piloting this. Right now. It will roll out nationally.
Ads that reach you on the go, know where you are and where you’re going. They know your surroundings. They can nudge you physically. That’s something you can’t do with plain old digital ads.
It also means that brands can put more data into these ads and get more data from these ads. Data is the thing that makes today’s digital ads valuable. So, these ads are more valuable.
And, here is the best part. At least right now, it’s hard to fake ad traffic and engagement when people shop and drive. As Benedict Evans said today, “Autonomous cars are 5-10 years away, and always will be.”
The most successful person I know is Michael Loeb. He co-founded Priceline and created two less-well-known companies that are worth loads. Sheepishly, I email him rarely. He always answers me in seconds. I have no idea how or why. A year ago, he nudged me to build something around directional advertising. I think it’s time I revisited the idea. It’s literally Yummy. 😊
That stuff was a layup. Here’s my stretch guess. There will be a raft of new tech that has to be developed to make on-the-go ads work at the mega-scale of the digital ad ecosystem. The people who start those companies and the VCs who back them will get some very big wins in the not-distance future.
Ironically, moveable media may be the biggest shift in media since Gutenberg gave moveable-type.
It all start with media that delivers someonething. If you listen closely, you can almost hear the plucking banjos.
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P.S. If you’re still here, thanks. The stuff I write here helps me crystalize ideas when an actual reporter calls or emails me. That happened a few days ago. Marc Iskowitz, the Executive Editor of MM&M asked me what’s going to be big. Fully prepped, I told him, “Cars!” This is his story and I’m quoted. So, thanks for helping me look smart.