Writers are on strike. Directors are on strike. People who make cars are on strike. 350,000 people who drive for UPS may strike. 30,000 people on strike drove Yellow Trucking out of business. Beyond people, this summer, ESPN went on strike. What’s with all the strikes?
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If you Google (v.), “What’s with all the strikes?”, you’ll get plenty of results. Reporters, economists, academicians, the lady who played The Nanny, the new guy who runs the UAW, management types,… everyone has an opinion.
And, the headline opinion is pretty much this:
Management makes way more than workers. Inflation is really high so we need raises to pay for stuff. Unemployment is really low so it’s tougher to replace labor. Big company profits should be shared more equitably. But, you need more than money stuff to foment this kind of tsuris. So, toss in some working condition window dressing — like making sure UPS trucks with no doors have AC.
Many of labor’s asks are Dr. Evil level out of touch with reality. We want a bagrillion grazillion dollars more and we want to work less. I get it, it’s a negotiation. Ask for the Moon and settle for something Earthly. That’s why I had this theoretical convo with the only astrophysicist I’m connected to on LinkedIn. Dr. Kirk Borne. He has a PhD in Astronomy from Cal Tech.
Me: So, Kirk — do you mind if I call you Kirk?
Kirk: You’re one of 80k+ people who tossed me a connection request on this ferkakte platform and this isn’t really happening, so, sure. Knock yourself out.
Me: Thanks. What’s really going on with all these strikes?
Kirk: Well… that’s a good question. All the usual stuff is playing out. But there’s more going on here this time. Remember inflection points in calculus?
Me: Um…
Kirk: OK, forget that. Inflection points in life are a lot more interesting. They’re like a mini-Big Bang. All the elements you need to start a new universe are just sitting around waiting to be catalyzed. I love inflection points. We’re at one and we’ve been building to this one for decades.
Me: That’s new.
Kirk: Darn tootin’. What do almost all of these strikes have in common? And, please. No schtick. Don’t say, “Not enough balls.”
Me: Doood, that’s so going to be the title for this thing.
Kirk: [Shakes his head and continues]. A new machine or process can upset an apple cart in one industry. Right now, a lot of apples are on the ground and a lot of people are upset. The last time actors and writers were on strike at the same time was 1960. What we take for granted today changed TV in the 1950s. Back then, shows were live. You didn’t just watch them when they aired, they happened while they aired. Other than Gunsmoke and I Love Lucy, TV was a live medium. Film (n.) wasn’t new. The idea that you could film (v.) shows for re-use was a big deal. It expanded the business of TV. Actors and writers wanted in on it. Technology and how it changes business catalyzed an inflection point.
Me: Are there other examples — maybe non-media ones?
Kirk: Darn tootin’.
Me: Catch phrase. Sweet. I should get one.
Kirk: Textile strikes in the ‘30s followed new tech that mechanized production. Mining strikes… coal just after WWII, steel in the ‘50s. The headlines were money and working conditions. They always are. The real issue was fear. Greed and fear are great motivators. Greed: wanting a bigger piece of a pie will get workers to picket. Fear: worrying about machines taking your jobs will do it too.
Me: Autoworkers, UPS, trucking. They’re related fields. Are this a common underlying tech thing too?
Kirk: Yes and no. It’s business and tech. First of all, until last week, the UAW has never been on strike at all three big automakers at the same time. Like the SAG, WGA combo, this is out of the ordinary. So, this is bigger than just wages, hours, and pensions. Even though, again, those are the headlines. It may look like greed, but my fake self, thinks this is driven by fear. 40% of cars sold in the U.S. are made by unions. That’s down from 84% in 1980 and 69% in 1990. Fear. UAW businesses are failing. What’s bad for your employer is bad for you.
Me: So it’s like the ESPN/cable fight this summer. As cable loses customers, ESPN has to dig in.
Kirk: Exactly. Plus, some tech. We think automating factories is new. It’s not. As long as there have been factories, there’s been automation. We’re 200 years into the industrial era. Even modern automation is more than 60 years old. GM put a robot in a NJ plant in 1961. By 1974 robots grew arms and look the things we’re used to seeing today.
Me: So, what’s new this time?
Kirk: A double dose of fear. A complete re-tooling. Not just the factories… the business. Telsa is growing fast and makes money. GM and Ford lose money on E.V.s. Now they have to invest billions to make electric cars. Fear one. E.V.s have fewer parts (no mufflers, injectors, catalytic converters, or stuff like that). Unions worry that the Big-3 will need fewer unionized employees. Fear two. The companies are scared. The unions are scared. You don’t talk about fear. It’s like Voldemort guy from Harry Potter. So you talk about money. John Casesa headed strategy at Ford recently said, “It’s unspoken. It’s all about positioning the union to have a central role in the new electric industry.”
Me: What’s next?
Kirk: New ways to produce and new ways to do business all aim to fuel our old-time want to buy things as cheaply as possible.
Me: So, this comes down to return on money?
Kirk: Right. GM can’t invest billions and keep their old cost structures. In 2019, McDonalds invested $6 billion in digital signage and kiosks. Now, when you walk in, you can order all by yourself. The average McDonalds hourly employee makes between $8.49 and $16.52 per hour. Let’s call it $12.50. McDonalds would need save 480 million people hours to make that back. That’s 240,000 person years. People. Person. You see where this is going. McDonalds would have to furlough every employee for 18 months to get payback on a $6b investment. That’s why the front of the store is only the start. Robots can replace fry cooks.
Me: Flippy?
Kirk: Yep. Flippy 2 actually. We’re at the start of that cycle now. The Flippy 2 robot cooks fries. You can guess from its name it can also flip burgers. A Flippy 2 costs $5000 plus $3000 per month. Jack in the Box and White Castle use Flippy. Three other big US fast-food chains use Flippy 2 but won’t advertise it because (1/ they’re not oblivious and because 2/,) “sensitivities that robots were taking jobs away from humans.” Miso, the company that makes Flippy has Sippy in the works. I’m sure the Service Employees International Union (SEIU) is plotting their strategy for 2026 right now.
Me: I think I’m getting it. Perry Michael Simon wrote about sports on AllAccess for nearly thirty years. The site shut down last month due to, “Strong financial headwinds.” This week, he tweeted this:
This is what a company looking for a basically full-time experienced writer to write six pieces a week plus research is paying. And, yes, that's per month, not week.
Kirk: Here’s the sad part. When it’s cheap to make stuff, you make lots of cheap stuff. The supply and demand gets out of whack. Prices fall. Not just for the products but for the people left who produce them. Here, the amount of ads went up a little. The amount of content went up a lot. This company would have to show about 625,000 ads per month to break even. They won’t. They’ll lose money. The writer can’t make a living wage. Welcome to the modern world of ad-supported media if you’re not Google, Meta, TikTok, or Amazon.
Me: The better the tech, the more deflationary it is.
Kirk: Deflationary, yes. Sometimes, strikes are about money, conditions, and fairness. When there are this many strikes across this many industries, there’s something much bigger going on here. We’ve been developing today’s tech for decades. It drives us around. It drives our stuff around. It produces our media. Embodied in robots, it makes our food. It’s pushing us client-server tools so we can self-serve our lives. All this tech is just sitting in the cloud waiting for a catalyst to create our next world. Our wants for inexpensive speed and scale are the catalyts. Our new world will use fewer moving pieces and will rely on fewer moving people. That’s what these strikes are really about. I study the Big Bang. I love inflection points. We’re at one of those times. Scientists will study this moment for hundreds of years. You can say you were here. Take good notes.
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You’ll notice this is a longer than normal piece. A little because there’s a lot of ground to cover. And, a little more, because if you choose to go without food or refreshment today, you may need something to read to pass the time between the shofar tekiahs, teruahs, and grande tekiahs. If that’s you, make it meaningful.